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TREES will not uproot themselves and embark on blood-soaked killing sprees by 2035, global warming experts have admitted.

The International Panel on Climate Change confirmed the evidence had not been peer-reviewed and will now amend the section of its 2007 report devoted to ‘killer trees’.

A spokesman said: "It appears the claim was not based on new data or field research but on that bit with the angry, talking trees in Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.

"We’re reviewing our procedures to determine how it made it into the final draft, though someone should probably have noticed the vivid description of the attack on Saruman’s underground orc factory.

Given that The Telegraph and The Times are on a mission to identify every single example of grey literature in WGII and III so that they can absolutely lose their shit about it, it’s amazing that they missed this one.

The killer tree scandal is the latest embarrassment for the IPCC which has also been forced to withdraw claims that global warming will cause elephants to grow to more than 200ft tall and develop an extra pair of massive tusks after sceptics pointed out it was obviously from Lord of The Rings: The Return of the King.

Oh, when will it all end?

“The science is settled”

“The science is settled” is a slogan attributed by opponents of the Kyoto Protocol and global warming theory to supporters notably in the Clinton administration. There are no known examples of its use outside the skeptic press, though some of the statements that were made have similar implications. The slogan itself has therefore become a detail in the political debate [wp].

The use of this slogan by deniers is pretty much the very definition of a straw man argument: a  misrepresentation of an opponent’s position in order to refute the misrepresentation, rather than the actual position. Despite the ubiquity of this statement in denialist discourse, one would be hard pressed to find a verifiable example of its use by proponents of the science of anthropogenic global warming.

But there does exist an example of its use by a ‘skeptic’. Here is S. Fred Singer, denier for hire, speaking at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change in New York:

S. Fred Singer:

“For me, the science is settled. The cause is clearly, mostly natural. The human component, while it must be there, is negligible. We don’t see it.”

So who thinks – and has said – that “the science is settled”? S. Fred Singer, for one.

Resources: Real Climate

Migrating snowboarders

Is the habitable zone for Winter Olympians shrinking?

Vancouver’s Cypress Mountain – one of the 2010 Olympic Winter Games venues – has had a bit too much green on the slopes, after an unseasonable amount of rainfall, necessitating implementation of the contingency plan: straw and wood to build the courses, with real and artificial snow layered on.

It’s an El Niño year, so slightly warmer than average; it happening in 2010 is something that wasn’t predictable seven years out, when Vancouver got the games.

There will be some hardcore weather forecasting going on this year:

With a hefty $9-million price tag, state-of-the-art forecasting equipment was installed at every outdoor venue in 2005, enabling meteorologists to pinpoint data so precisely they can predict weather patterns for each of the six specific Olympic sites.

“We’ve got our grids down to, like 100 metres,” said Mr. Doyle. “So for every 100 metres in space and on the surface, we can prepare a forecast. That’s an Olympic first. It’s never been done before. We’ve raised the bar.”

Average temperature in February in Vancouver: 4.8 °C. If it gets – and stays – warmer, the snowboarders will have to migrate.

Trusting the weatherman

TV weathercasters hold some strong opinions on climate change, and don’t mind sharing them.

A recent survey found that only a small minority of TV weathercasters – less than 17% of  respondents – thought it was not appropriate for them to discuss the science of climate change on air, online or at community speaking events. As the majority of TV weathercasters are happy discussing the science of climate change, what did the survey find that they think about it?

  • 80% of the respondents agreed that they should be knowledgeable about the conclusions of the IPCC, but only 45% agreed with the IPCC statement, approved by 113 nations, that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”
  • Only 24% agreed with the IPCC conclusion that “most of the warming since 1950 is very likely human-induced”, and
  • 29% of TV meteorologists agreed with John Coleman’s claim that “global warming is a scam”.

All of which places a significant percentage of weathercasters in the skeptic / denialist camp. As the authors indicate, this is very relevant for science communication:

Given their high-profile platform, how weathercasters communicate the science of climate change may have more impact on public discourse than any other means of dissemination, underscoring the importance of trying to improve that communication process.

Another survey, on “Americans’ Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes”, adds weight to this conclusion. The Yale Project on Climate Change survey found that although scientists command a greater degree of trust than TV weathercasters, both scientists and weathercasters are seen to be somewhat trustworthy by roughly equal percentages – around half – of the respondents.

Picture6

The same survey also found that only 57% of respondents thought that global warming was happening. Addressing such a low level of public certainty about a field that commands such high scientific confidence is a challenge, and one in which TV weathercasters can have an important role.

“If the United States decides to go down that road of not carbon taxing and not capping and trading but rather, simply, detailed regulations across the economy, we would need to harmonize with the United States on a regulatory approach,” he said.

What is left to try, if not a carbon tax and if not cap and trade? “Detailed regulations across the economy” sounds like a lot of red tape, an idea that won’t fly with the Cons or the business community. Not to mention that it would probably be more complex than cap and trade, which is, in turn, more complex than a straightforward carbon tax. A Conservative minister in favour of more regulations is a strange beast indeed.

But lest business be burdened with all the responsibility, he also thinks that each of us should step up and follow his own action plan:

Prentice, who bills himself as a keen recycler who doesn’t own a car, says every Canadian must make an effort to cut their own emissions by unplugging their flat-screen TVs, recycling and turning off the lights.

So, to cut personal emissions, if you have a flat screen TV, stop watching it. If you have light bulbs, turn them off. And, for some baffling reason, recycle, although what that has to do with cutting emissions is beyond me. It isn’t as though milk comes in a carton made out of methane clathrates, and if we don’t recycle them to the icy depths, we’ll each have a carbon footprint the size of Athabasca.

Business doesn’t get to abdicate its responsibility for emissions reductions by passing the buck to individual Canadians, who, besides, can’t get the job done. After all, the One Tonne Challenge was a miserable failure. If Canada wants to make any serious effort in cutting emissions, it needs to change its laws, which means that some day, Prentice and Harper are going to need to have an awkward conversation with their base.

It needn’t be all that awkward. Putting a carbon tax on the table wouldn’t be a bad idea. All the revenue could be kept in the Provinces, it would stimulate emissions reductions by producers, and provide an incentive for consumers to make low carbon purchasing decisions. Contrary to what the Conservatives like to say, according to a report that they once tried to cover up, it wouldn’t mean economic apocalypse; and it will be a lot more effective than unplugging that flat screen TV.

“I don’t think we should consider signing on to a deal that makes us virtually the sole country in the world that is going to take any action.” (Stephen Harper, Toronto Star, September 5, 2002)

“Kyoto does virtually nothing to deal with pollution and to deal with the quality of the air that we breathe. Let’s forget about this unworkable treaty.. Kyoto’s never going to be passed.” (Stephen Harper, Toronto Star, September 5, 2002)

“This may be a lot of fun for a few scientific and environmental elites in Ottawa, but ordinary Canadians from coast to coast will not put up with what this will do to their economy and lifestyle.” (Stephen Harper, Toronto Star, September 5, 2002)

“No, what I am supportive of is, frankly, not ratifying the Kyoto agreement and not implementing it.” (Stephen Harper, CTV News, September 6, 2002)

“[Gobal warming] is a scientific hypothesis and a controversial one.” (Stephen Harper, Toronto Star, September 5, 2002)

“Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant.” (Stephen Harper, Hansard, October 11, 2002)

“We cannot predict the weather tomorrow with absolute accuracy. We certainly cannot predict the climate 100 years from now… Models have been constructed that suggest there could well be a base line increase of about 2.5°C over 100 years. There is no particular knowledge at the moment whether that relationship has to do with natural or man-made carbon dioxide. Frankly, over the last few years we have failed to see the full rise in global temperatures that the models predict.” (Stephen Harper, Hansard, October 24, 2002)

“The relationship of carbon dioxide to global warming also involves complicated and complex science that is far from settled. It is a matter of significant debate.” (Stephen Harper, Hansard, October 24, 2002)

“[Kyoto] is designed to address the so-called ‘greenhouse gas’ phenomenon, the hypothesis that the increase of certain gases – not necessarily pollutants – contribute to a long-term global warming trend.” (Stephen Harper, Address at the Ottawa Leader’s Dinner, November 20, 2002)

“As economic policy the Kyoto Accord is a disaster. As environmental policy it is a fraud.” (Stephen Harper, Address at the Ottawa Leader’s Dinner, November 20, 2002)

..Canada’s implementation will not lead to global reductions of CO2. In fact the transfer of wealth, jobs and emissions to non-target countries virtually ensures that carbon dioxide emissions will increase under the Kyoto Protocol” (Stephen Harper, Address at the Ottawa Leader’s Dinner, November 20, 2002)

“My party’s position on the Kyoto Protocol is clear and has been for a long time. We will oppose ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and its targets. We will work with the provinces and others to discourage the implementation of those targets. And we will rescind the targets when we have the opportunity to do so.” (Stephen Harper, Ottawa Citizen, November 22, 2002)

“.there is no environmental benefit [to Kyoto] of any kind.” (Transcript of Stephen Harper interview on the Rafe Mair Show, CKNW Radio Vancouver, November 29, 2002)

“We think the deal itself [Kyoto] is simply bogus.” (Transcript of Stephen Harper interview on the Rafe Mair Show, CKNW Radio Vancouver, November 29, 2002)

“Carbon dioxide which is a naturally occurring gas vital to the life cycles of this planet. Smog is an entirely different issue is not covered by this treaty.” (Transcript of Stephen Harper interview on the Rafe Mair Show, CKNW Radio Vancouver, November 29, 2002)

“We can debate whether or not… CO2 does or does not contribute to global warming. I think the jury is out.” (Stephen Harper interview on the Rafe Mair Show, CKNW Radio Vancouver, November 29, 2002)

“I will not comment at any length about the science of this other than to say the science remains in flux and is controversial. This is not just about issues of global warming or how these gases contribute to global warming, but the very reality that there has been constant climate change in the earth’s history. We know this and quite frankly science knows very little about why over the epochs and the centuries those temperature changes have taken place in the first place.” (Stephen Harper, Hansard, December 9, 2002)

“The Kyoto protocol does not deal with critical environmental issues.” (Stephen Harper, Address on the Kyoto Accord, December 9, 2002)

“The accord does negatively impact every region of the country. So rather than talk up separation, it is important to build a coalition across the country to defeat Kyoto.” (Stephen Harper, Report Newsmagazine, December 16, 2002)

“We’re gearing up for the biggest struggle our party has faced since you entrusted me with the leadership. I’m talking about the “battle of Kyoto” — our campaign to block the job-killing, economy-destroying Kyoto Accord.

It would take more than one letter to explain what’s wrong with Kyoto, but here are a few facts about this so-called “Accord”:

  • It’s based on tentative and contradictory scientific evidence about climate trends.
  • It focuses on carbon dioxide, which is essential to life, rather than upon pollutants.
  • Canada is the only country in the world required to make significant cuts in emissions. Third World countries are exempt, the Europeans get credit for shutting down inefficient Soviet-era industries, and no country in the Western hemisphere except Canada is signing.
  • Implementing Kyoto will cripple the oil and gas industry, which is essential to the economies of Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia.
  • As the effects trickle through other industries, workers and consumers everywhere in Canada will lose. THERE ARE NO CANADIAN WINNERS UNDER THE KYOTO ACCORD.
  • The only winners will be countries such as Russia, India, and China, from which Canada will have to buy “emissions credits.” Kyoto is essentially a socialist scheme to suck money out of wealth-producing nations.
  • On top of all this, Kyoto will not even reduce greenhouse gases. By encouraging transfer of industrial production to Third World countries where emissions standards are more relaxed, it will almost certainly increase emissions on a global scale

Jean Chrétien says he will introduce a resolution to ratify Kyoto into Parliament and get it passed before Christmas. We will do everything we can to stop him there, but he might get it passed with the help of the socialists in the NDP and the separatists in the BQ.

But the “battle of Kyoto” is just beginning. Ratification is merely symbolic; Kyoto will not take effect unless and until it is implemented by legislation. We will go to the wall to stop that legislation and at that point we will be on much stronger procedural ground than in trying to block a mere resolution.

The Reform Party defeated the Charlottetown Accord in an epic struggle in the fall of 1992. Now the Canadian Alliance is leading the battle against the Kyoto Accord!

But we can’t do it alone. It will take an army of Canadians to beat Kyoto, just as it did to beat Charlottetown.

We can’t stop Kyoto just in Parliament. We need your help at all levels. We need you to inform yourself about Kyoto, to discuss it with your friends and neighbours, and to write protest letters to newspapers and the government.

And, yes, we need your gifts of money. The “battle of Kyoto” is going to lead directly into the next election. We need your contribution of $500, or $250, or $100, or whatever you can afford, to help us drive the Liberals from power.

Yours truly,

Stephen Harper, MP

Leader of the Opposition

PS: The “battle of Kyoto” shows why the Canadian Alliance is so important to you and to Canada. All the other federal parties are supporting Kyoto (Liberals, NDP, BQ) or speaking out of both sides of their mouth (Tories). Only the Canadian Alliance is strong and fearless enough to block dangerous and destructive schemes like the Charlottetown Accord and the Kyoto Accord.(Stephen Harper, Letter to Canadian Reform Alliance Party supporters, 2002)

“This is just the beginning of the biggest black-hole boondoggle in Canadian history.” (Stephen Harper, National Post, August 13, 2003)

“The science is still evolving [with respect to climate change.]” (Stephen Harper, Toronto Star, June 10, 2004)

“Carbon dioxide does not cause or contribute to smog, and the Kyoto treaty would do nothing to reduce or prevent smog.” (Stephen Harper, Toronto Star, June 10, 2004).

“I think these are subjects where we know a lot less than some claim we know. Climate is always changing. My suspicion is that human activities have some impact upon that but I think the jury is out on a lot of the actual specific trends.” (Stephen Harper, Interview with Frontier Centre for Public Policy, May 18, 2004)

“I think these are subjects where we know a lot less than some claim we know. Climate is always changing. My suspicion is that human activities have some impact upon that but I think the jury is out on a lot of the actual specific trends.” (Stephen Harper, Interview with Frontier Centre for Public Policy, May 18, 2004)

“Redirect federal spending aimed at fulfilling the terms of the increasingly irrelevant Kyoto Protocol.” (Stephen Harper, Ottawa Citizen, June 8, 2005)

“It’ll be a lot harder for the Liberals to run their campaign of fear. In fact, they’ll have troubling explaining why it was that the [Prince Edward] Island didn’t actually sink into the Gulf of St. Lawrence after all.” (Stephen Harper, speech to the PEI PC Party, April 28, 2006)

“But Canadians have made it clear they want us to put one task ahead of all others: protecting and improving our environment.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the fundamental challenge of our time is to make real progress on environmental protection while preserving jobs and standards of living. Finding that balance will require sound science, rational debate and political will. Our government understands that global warming is a serious threat to the health and well-being of Canadians. The just-released report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has sounded the alarm yet again. Rising levels of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere are projected to exacerbate climate changes that could be devastating for many parts of our planet. My children, your children and all children deserve to grow up in a world where they have clean air to breathe and clean water to drink. They deserve well-tended land that will sustain healthy crops and livestock. And they deserve large tracts of unspoiled wilderness, sanctuaries that not only preserve our precious flora and fauna, but also provide opportunities for increasingly urbanized human beings to connect with the natural world. But in order to bequeath this future to our children, we have to have a realistic plan, not just empty rhetoric. Our government supports a concerted global effort to deal with climate change – and such an effort must include the major emitters, including the United States and China. But we cannot ask others to act unless we are prepared to start at home, with real action on greenhouse gases and air pollution. After more than a decade of inaction on air quality and greenhouse gasses, Canada has one of the worst records in the developed world. The previous government committed to ambitious greenhouse gas targets, and then presided over a 27% increase. The result is increased smog in our cities and rising rates of asthma and other ailments. That is why our government is charting a dynamic new path. Our program to regulate air quality represents a radical departure from the missed opportunities of past years. In the weeks ahead, for the first time ever, Canada’s New Government will move to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from major industrial sectors. For the first time ever, we will also move to regulate air pollution from major industry sectors. For the first time ever, we will regulate the fuel efficiency of motor vehicles, beginning with the 2011 model year. And for the first time ever, we will set out enforceable regulatory targets for the short, medium and long term. The era of voluntary compliance is over.

In our environmental plan, Canadians will also see our new eco-energy programs that support energy efficiency and stimulate the production of renewable power. They will see regulations mandating greater use of ethanol and other green fuels. They will see measures to make energy efficient vehicles more affordable. They will see better protection from hazardous chemicals through our new Chemicals Management Plan. And they will see support for wilderness preservation initiatives such as B.C.’s Great Bear Rainforest conservation project. Budget 2006 allowed the banking of environmentally sensitive land tax free, and we will be following this in the next few weeks with major conservation initiatives that harness the private sector. In a nutshell, Canadians will enjoy a cleaner, greener and healthier country – a better Canada.” (Stephen Harper, 6 February 2007, Ottawa)

“In the interests of time, allow me to focus my remarks this afternoon on the fight against climate change, perhaps the biggest threat to confront the future of humanity today.

Canada may be a small contributor to global warming – our greenhouse gas emissions represent just 2% of the earth’s total – but we owe it to future generations to do whatever we can to address this world problem. And Canadians, blessed as we are, should make a substantial contribution to confronting this challenge. At this Summit, for the first time ever, Canada will arrive at a G-8 meeting with a real and realistic action plan on climate change. Normally, Canada is a country that prides itself on living up to its international obligations and commitments. But frankly, up to now, our country has been engaged in a lot of “talking the talk” but not “walking the walk” when it has come to greenhouse gases. A decade ago our predecessors in government committed our country to the Kyoto protocol. They said Canada would reduce its emissions to 6% below 1990 levels beginning in 2008. And then they did practically nothing to achieve this goal. Instead, they maintained policies that pushed emissions in the other direction. In fact, when we came to office last year, Canada’s emissions were 33% above the target and rising. Which meant, with only months before the targets kicked in, it had become impossible to meet the Kyoto commitment without crippling our economy. So we vowed to develop a real plan – with real, absolute, mandatory reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

A plan that’s practical, affordable and achievable. A plan that’s balanced and market-driven. A plan that deals with our growing economy and population.But also a plan that achieves real, absolute, mandatory reductions in greenhouse gases and positions Canada as a leader in fighting climate change. There are elements of our plan that could work not just for Canada, but for many countries in the world – including some of the large emitters that did not accept targets under the Kyoto protocol. After all, the countries that did accept targets under Kyoto account for less than 30% of global emissions. The outsiders included major, growing emitters like China, India and the United States.

Obviously, if we really want to stop climate change, all the big emitters need to step up to the plate and must accept real targets. It is urgent that we start work now – and this week’s Summit is the perfect opportunity – to develop a new universal consensus on how to prevent global warming in the post-2012 period. Our own domestic plan of action has mandatory greenhouse gas reduction targets for large emitters. Every year, large emitters must become more energy efficient and emit less carbon per unit of production – intensity improvements of 18% by 2010, and 2% a year beyond that each and every year.

And let me stress that this plan will not allow emissions to continue to grow indefinitely. Improvements in emissions intensity of this magnitude mean that there will be real, absolute reductions in emissions levels by at least 2012 and as early as 2010. It will put us on track to absolute greenhouse gas reductions of 20% by 2020. And, let me be clear, Canada’s long-term target of a 60 to 70% reduction of 2006 emissions by 2050 is consistent with cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by half over 1990 levels – a goal sought by the European Union.

The approach we have chosen, basing emissions reduction targets on units of production in the short run, allows growing and developing economies to engage in significant greenhouse gas reductions without putting themselves at immediate risk. And in the long run, I believe Chancellor Merkel and I are on the same page on this point at least: all countries must embrace ambitious absolute reduction targets, so that the International Panel on Climate Change’s goal of cutting emissions in half by 2050 can be met. Of course, it may not be possible for all countries, or all industries and firms within all countries, to reduce their emissions by the same amount on the same time line. That is why other compliance measures such as carbon offsets and carbon trading are also necessary. They are part of Canada’s plan and, provided they are not just an accounting shell game, they must be part of a universal, international regime. Ladies and gentlemen, it is time for all countries – especially the large emitters represented this week at the meetings of the G8 and the five major developing countries – to come together and cooperate as we move towards a post-2012 regime. We cannot afford to have the world divided on this issue, to pit right against left, Europe against America, or the developed countries against the developing world. We need a plan that takes into account both different starting points and different national circumstances, but that moves us all towards a common destination. There will be much debate in the weeks and months ahead over the best course of action for the world after the end of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012.

In the meantime, there is much else we can do. We’re involved in a number of international partnerships that are working to develop new technologies – from carbon sequestration to renewable fuels to clean coal – that will lead to significant emission reductions. Indeed, the agreement signed today between Canada’s National Research Council and Germany’s Helmholtz Association will bring together some of the world’s best researchers in the fields of alternative energy, bio-fuels and other environmentally friendly energy sources. Technology is the key. Just as the Stone Age did not end because the world ran out of stones, the Carbon Age will not end because the world runs out of fossil fuels. Instead, human ingenuity will develop alternative forms of energy as well as cleaner, greener ways to use carbon. And Canada will be at the forefront, as a green energy superpower.” (Stephen Harper, Berlin, 4 June 2007)

“The growing menace of climate change is one of the most important public policy challenges of our time… For at least a decade most Governments, including Canada’s Government, paid lip service to the issue because they were unwilling to tell the public that reducing carbon emissions will have real economic costs. We need to take action. We owe it to future generations, just as we owe them a strong and secure economic future.” (Stephen Harper, 7 September 2007, APEC Business Summit, Australia)

“Now of course, I am in your city this week on another matter, excuse me, where Canada intends to lead by example, and that is the challenge of climate change. Yesterday at the U.N. climate change meeting and at last night’s dinner, leaders joined with the secretary-general to discuss solutions to the problems of rising greenhouse gas emissions. Let me be clear. Canada believes we need a new international protocol that contains binding targets for all of the world’s major emitters, including the United States and China. And it is through such targets that the development and deployment of new clean energy technology will be stimulated.

That is what we are doing in Canada. We’re implementing a national system of mandatory greenhouse gas emission reduction across major industrial sectors. Our plan will reduce Canada’s total emissions by 20 percent to the year 2020, and 60 to 70 percent by 2050. And make no mistake; this system will impose real cost on the Canadian economy. At the same time, by basing our early targets on emissions intensity, we are balancing effective environmental action with the reality that Canada has a growing population and growing economic output. The message is that we need to take action. We owe it to future generations, just as we owe them the opportunity to have the economic prosperity that we do today. We owe them both — sustainable environment and a prosperous economy.

In the global fight against climate change, Canada will do everything in its power to help develop an effective, all-inclusive international environmental framework that recognizes national economic circumstances, just as we did with the successful Montreal Protocol on the protection of the ozone layer, on which I should add that international progress could not have come without the leadership at the table demonstrated by the United States and China.

The solution to climate change cannot and will not be one size fits all, but neither can nations treat this issue as simply somebody else’s responsibility. This is the message we’ve delivered at home to Canadians. It’s the message we brought to our G-8 colleagues in June at the summit there in Heiligendamm. It’s the message we gave to APEC countries and business leaders in Sydney, Australia, two weeks ago, and it’s the message I conveyed during discussions here in New York.” (Stephen Harper, Council on Foreign Relations, September 25, 2007)

“We had a productive dialogue on climate change. We all recognized the urgency of taking action to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change. In particular, we recognized the threats to small island states, low-lying coastal states and the least-developed countries. Those of us going to Copenhagen share a common understanding that we need to act together. Canada is seeking a long-term international agreement where we all contribute to the solution. Such an agreement would also encourage the development and use of clean technologies while fostering the economic growth needed to pay for global warming mitigation.” (Statement by the Prime Minister of Canada, 29 November 2009 Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago)

A funny thing happened in 2007…

Getting cute with graphs

How to cherry pick data

Here’s the banner image for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, Nigel Lawson’s ‘think’ tank.

thegwpf-header

On the left of the image, that’s a cute data plot of 21st Century global mean temperature (2001-2008), and, plainly, it shows that the temperature is in decline over the seven year period.

But why only seven years of data, and not 130 years of data? For the forward looking chaps at the GWPF, one supposes that would be just too last millennium.  It’s 2010, after all. Why look backward?

Here’s why not:

Instrumental_Temperature_Record

The Global Warming Policy Foundation got it right with their banner image; that is how to cherry pick data. Don’t show, don’t even hint at, the existence of something that contradicts your message, like 130 years of temperature data with a really clear positive trend. Just ignore it or deny it.

How not to cherry pick data

With that in mind, take a look at this really quite baffling graph from the website of the Orwellian-named Canadian ‘Friends of Science’:

GlobalTroposphereTemperaturesAverage

This series runs from 1979 to 2009. It shows data from two averaged satellite temperature records, with the CO2 concentration in green. Both birds have only been flying since the end of the 1970s, hence the data series starts in 1979. “Surface temperature data is contaminated by the effects of urban development”, the ‘Friends’ tell us, which one supposes must suffice as explanation for their only using satellite data. As an aside, one wonders if science really needs such friends as these, able to dismiss 130 years of surface temperature measurements and scientific endeavour with an imperious wave of the hand. But let us persist, and see what the satellite data shows; perhaps a best fit over the 30 years of satellite measurements will reveal some interesting information.

Well, the ‘Friends of Science’ were good enough to plot a best fit (that odd little purple line on the right), but one that started on January 2002, not 1979:

“The best fit line from January 2002 indicates a declining trend.”

Indeed it does, dear ‘Friends’, but why a best fit for that interval? 1998 to 2009 would have really made your point. Plotting a best fit from 2002, while plainly ignoring the rest of the data, just looks silly.

Where the ‘Friends of Science’ went wrong, clearly, was in revealing the existence of a  full 30 years of satellite temperature measurements. If their x-axis had started in 2002, it would have made for a much more subtle cherry pick than displaying 30 years of data and adding an orphaned best fit line that doesn’t cover even a third of the whole plot.

I don’t know, it’s as if the ‘Friends of Science’ aren’t really committed to denialism.

Take a tip from the GWPF’s playbook: if you are going to cherry pick data, don’t blatantly show the audience that is what you have done, and don’t even hint at the disconcerting existence of such findings as this:

Satellite_Temperatures

Shhh…

If you have just learned that global warming was all a massive fraud being perpetuated by Commie scientists in East Angular, your blood is all angried up and you can’t wait to just jump right in and start SHOUTING about it -  but don’t quite know where to start – then this post is for you!

Just copy and paste the following texts, remembering to delete the words you don’t want. Otherwise people might think you are a bot and your post won’t get past the spam filter! Don’t let that happen: the world needs to hear your opinion!! The internet has given ordinary people a way to fight back against the received wisdom of the so-called “wise elites”. You can force the Climategate scientist’s media enablers to start covering this story that they would rather ignore!!!

First, choose your personality type. You are:

…all rogue n’ mavericky:

Global warming is nothing but a [plot/conspiracy/giant lie] by [Big Government, Big Green and Big Business / the trillion dollar wind power industryBig Energy / Al Gore] to [give all power to the UN Climatocrats / create a one world government / tax the US into bankruptcy / force you to bow down to its agenda of enforced austerity / enrich Al Gore].

These emails just go to show what a [scam / con / fraud / giant Ponzi scheme] global warming really is.

We need to stop [the “cap and kill” law / mortgaging our children’s futures on pseudoscience / the Socialist Agenda] before the [eco-fascists / warlarmists / greentards] [tax us into the stone age / exploit us like the third world peasants they want us to become / destroy our liberty / force us into solar powered death camps].

[AGW is a myth / There is no Mann-made global warming / the Greenhouse Effect is just a theory, not a fact]. Get over it.

…some twit that went to a posh school and now writes a blog {*}:

This is the end of the [IPCC-endorsed AGW scam / Al Gore’s great big AGW conspiracy].

Climategate is [the game changer that will make people listen / the end of the Al Gore-approved AGW narrative].

AGW is [about raising taxes / increasing state control / about a few canny hucksters who’ve leapt on the bandwagon fleecing us rotten with their taxpayer subsidised windfarms and their cabon-trading / about the sour, anti-capitalist impulses of sandal-wearing vegans and lapsed Communists who loathe the idea of freedom and a functioning market economy / little more than a scheme by bullying ecofascists to deprive us of our liberty].

We know it’s all a crock and we’re not going to take it.

But the vested interests behind AGW are going to make darned sure that [the AGW bandwagon keeps roll roll rollin’ along / we push this utterly disastrous, economy-destroying measure through / spend vast amounts of public money on a problem that doesn’t exist].

This is our Berlin Wall moment! They can’t stop us now!

…just terribly concerned about what it all means for science:

I’m a [scientist / engineer / fully qualified blogger] and I have never seen [naughtiness / misconduct / outright lying and fraud] like this in all my years of [science / professional experience / blogging].

These so-called scientists’ exclusion of alternative views and opinions is nothing less than [Marxist state censorship / suppression of dissent / Lysenkoism] and is not what science is all about.

These [frauds / white-coated Eichmanns / con-men who hijacked science to predict a looming Armageddon unless we do exactly what they say] should [be censored / resign / be fired and stripped of their titles so they never get employment again /be Rochambeau’d].

We should throw out [the hockey stick / all of their research / all ground based temperature data / all the Paleoclimate reconstructions  / the IPCC reports] and just start over on climate science from a clean slate.

Science should be open and transparent. They need to release all of their [code / emails / raw data / home address and teenage daughters' cellphone number] so we can see for ourselves before we [destroy our economy / give trillions of dollars directly to Al Gore] based on a lie.

…absolutely convinced of media bias everywhere:

ClimateGate proves that global warming is: [dead / a fraud / the greatest lie ever perpetuated on the American people], but the [liberal / left wing / eco-shill / Libtard-MSM] media are [covering it up / hiding the truth / in full panic stricken media blackout mode].

Only [Fox News / The Daily Mail / The {insert your own courageous national media outlet here}] are covering this story. Hmm.

Global warming [alarmism / hysteria] is all about [money / power / a massive UN sponsored tax grab]. Just Google [Michael Crichton / {insert name of some blogger you like here}].

…suffering from liberal guilt, probably wearing sandals right now, and have about as much backbone as roadkill weasel after a visit to a chiropractor:

It’s no use pretending this isn’t a major blow. The emails extracted by a hacker from the climatic research unit at the University of East Anglia could scarcely be more damaging. I am now convinced that they are genuine, and I’m dismayed and deeply shaken by them.

…President of The Maldives:

I know you are all really busy right now with some emails or whatever, but we are a tad concerned that we might be losing some height. As in, above sea level.

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Resources:

Poe’s Law

A more productive approach to discussing the CRU email thefts

CRU email theft perspectives

Is there really a place where the denialists aren’t?

Here’s hoping. And let’s hope that CRU can get back to work soon. We’ll all benefit. Except maybe the denialists, who will have to find something else to misrepresent.

Oh look, Kiwis! Okay, that was quick.

In the meantime, this happened:

“Vast ice sheets across the globe gained up to four inches just hours after it emerged experts at the University of East Anglia had been manipulating data in a bid to knock-off early.

Meanwhile in the Antarctic the 200 square mile Donnelly ice shelf changed direction and headed back towards the continent where it then reattached itself to the slightly larger McPartlin ice shelf.

Climate change sceptic and fully-qualified blogger Martin Bishop said: “As soon as these emails were released the world’s glaciers resumed their normal, icey behaviour, as long-predicted by some of London’s most important journalists.

“This is the smoking iceberg that fires a polar bear of truth between the eyes of hysteria and communism.””

Or maybe not. But The Daily Mash do quote an expert, albeit superfluously, considering they already quoted a fully-qualified blogger.

Professor Henry Brubaker, of the Institute for Studies, said: “While there will always be debate over climate data, it’s important to remember that the state of the world’s icebergs and glaciers remains wholly dependant on which group of tedious, hectoring arseholes is currently winning the argument.”

-The Daily Mash

If you own any shares in companies that produce reflecting telescopes, use differential and integral calculus, or rely on the laws of motion, I should start dumping them NOW. The conspiracy behind the calculus myth has been suddenly, brutally and quite deliciously exposed after volumes of Newton’s private correspondence were compiled and published.

When you read some of these letters, you realise just why Newton and his collaborators might have preferred to keep them confidential. This scandal could well be the biggest in Renaissance science. These alleged letters – supposedly exchanged by some of the most prominent scientists behind really hard math lessons – suggest:

Conspiracy, collusion in covering up the truth, manipulation of data, private admissions of flaws in their public claims and much more.

But perhaps the most damaging revelations are those concerning the way these math nerd scientists may variously have manipulated or suppressed evidence to support their cause.

Here are a few tasters. They suggest dubious practices such as:

Conspiring to avoid public scrutiny:

There is nothing which I desire to avoid in matters of philosophy more then contentions, nor any kind of contention more then one in print: & therefore I gladly embrace your proposal of a private correspondence. What’s done before many witnesses is seldom without some further concern then that for truth: but what passes between friends in private usually deserve ye name of consultation rather then contest, & so I hope it will prove between you & me.

Newton to Hooke, 5 February 1676

Insulting dissenting scientists and equating them with holocaust deniers:

[Hooks Considerations] consist in ascribing an hypothesis to me which is not mine; in asserting an hypothesis which as to ye principal parts of it is not against me; in granting the greatest part of my discourse if explicated by that hypothesis; & in denying some things the truth of which would have appeared by an experimental examination.

Newton to Oldenburg, 11 June 1672

Manipulation of evidence:

I wrote to you on Tuesday that the last leafe of the papers you sent me should be altered because it refers to a manuscript in my private custody & not yet upon record.

Newton to Keill, May 15 1674

Knowingly publishing scientific fraud:

You need not give yourself the trouble of examining all the calculations of the Scholium. Such errors as do not depend upon wrong reasoning can be of no great consequence & may be corrected by the reader.

Newton to Cotes June 15 1710

Suppression of evidence:

Mr. Raphson has printed off four or five sheets of his History of Fluxions, but being shew’d Sr. Is. Newton (who, it seems, would rather have them write against him, than have a piece done in that manner in his favour), he got a Stop put to it, for some time at least.

Jones to Cotes, 17 September 1711

Abusing the peer review system:

…only the Germans and French have in a violent manner attack’d the Philosophy of Sr. Is. Newton, and seem resolved to stand by Cartes; Mr. Keil, as a person concerned, has undertaken to answer and defend some things, as Dr. Friend, and Dr. Mead, does (in their way) the rest: I would have sent you ye whole controversy, was not I sure that you know, those only are most capable of objecting against his writings, that least understand them; however, in a little time, you’ll see some of these in ye Philos. Transact.

Jones to Cotes, October 25 1711

Insulting their critics:

The controversy concerning Sr. Isaac’s Philosophy is a piece of news that I had not heard of unless Muys’s late book be meant. I think that Philosophy needs no defence, especially when tis attack’t by Cartesians. One Mr Green a Fellow of Clare Hall in our University seems to have nearly the same design with those German & French objectors whom you mention. His book is now in our press & is almost finished. I am told he will add an appendix in which he undertakes also to square the circle. I need not recommend his performance any further to you.

Cotes to Jones, November 11 1711

Gravity does not extend so far from Earth that it can be the force holding the moon to its orbit; school students are increasingly reluctant to practice differential equations, that will only lead to the practice of more oppressive forms of higher math; the tide is turning against over-regulation, like Newton’s “laws” of motion and Universal Gravitation. The so called ‘Cartesian’, ‘skeptical’ view is now also the majority view.

Unfortunately we’ve a long way to go before the public mood (and scientific truth) is reflected by our policy makers. There are too many vested interests in classical mechanics, with far too much to lose either in terms of reputation or money, for this to end without a bitter fight.

But if the Newton / Royal Society mail scandal is true, it is a blow to the Renaissance lobby’s credibility which is never likely to recover.

Resources:

Real Climate on the CRU hack

Greenfyre’s overview of Climategate

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